A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
