A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
